Background on World Cup Qualifying
The World Cup will happen in November-December 2022 in Qatar. At the moment, the 8 groups of 4 teams were selected for the World Cup. A standard custom when evaluating the teams is to see from which of those teams is it most troublesome to groups to advance to the elimination section. To advance to the elimination section, that you must be within the high 2 finishers in your group.
One different complication is that there are nonetheless 3 groups to be determined:
- Wales, Ukraine or Scotland or will play in Group B
- Peru, Australia or the United Arab Emirates will play in Group D
- Costa Rica or New Zealand will play in Group E.
Methodology for figuring out the Group of Demise
To make this willpower, I rated every group primarily based on FIFA’s nation rankings by way of each it’s nation world rating and the factors every nation has. Within the figures beneath, I take advantage of the nation factors rating. Every group is evaluated primarily based on 3 metrics:
- Common FIFA factors
- Median FIFA factors
- Common FIFA factors amongst lowest ranked 3 groups
The typical and median give the standard high quality of groups within the group. Nonetheless, it might be the case the place there’s a group with one excellent workforce that will probably be everybody however 3 comparatively poor groups. On this case, the typical or median rating might not replicate how straightforward it’s to advance. Because of this, I additionally calculate the typical FIFA factors among the many 3 lowest ranked groups.
For this train, I initially assume that the best ranked groups (i.e., Wales, Peru and Costa Rica) advance to the World Cup.
In baseline state of affairs, the US is within the Group of Demise.
If Wales advances to the World Cup, the US is within the Group of Demise (Group B). On this state of affairs, not one of the 4 groups in Group B can be ranked worse than twenty first on the earth: England (fifth), US (twelfth), Wales (18), Iran (21). The determine beneath reveals the group statistics primarily based on FIFA factors amongst nations in every group. The result’s related if I do the evaluation primarily based on FIFA rankings moderately than FIFA factors.
On this case, the best group is group A throughout all 3 metrics. In truth, Group A is the best group by a large margin.
Different situations
As there are nonetheless 3 World Cup locations to find out, there are different situations to contemplate. If Scotland (World cup rank 39) certified for Group B moderately than Wales, group D turns into the group of Demise.
Nonetheless, group D solely is the Group of Demise if Peru (22) qualifies for its group. If as a substitute Australia (42) or the United Arab Emirates (68) qualifies, nonetheless, than Group E or would typically be the Group of Demise primarily based median and common FIFA factors; Group G would have a declare to the Group of Demise primarily based on Common FIFA factors.
Group E because the Group of Demise and Best Group?!?!
Group E is a troublesome group with Spain (7), Germany (12) Japan (23) and certain Costa Rica (31). Nonetheless, if New Zealand (101) beats Costa Rica within the playoff, it might be the bottom rated workforce within the match. If Scotland, the United Arab Emirates and New Zealand all made it to the world cup, we might have the odd case the place Group E can be the Group of Demise primarily based on Median FIFA factors, however would have the best group primarily based on common FIFA factors and common FIFA factors among the many lowest 3 groups.
Calculations
See my workbook here for the calculations. Be at liberty to mess around with it!
World Cup Draw (as of 1 April 2022).
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